Number 4 worked for me last night on AW and BO3 . AW worked right away , BO3 I had to reset router and xbox one a few times maybe more than a few before it was happy and would let me play.
Oh and I never had a nat issue I had the ABCDEF-h whatever error when trying to connect earlier last night and the day before. The day before I also could not connect bto aw . It seems good now with everything back on and #4 cloud settings.